Monday, August 01, 2011

Not too high on the budget "deal"

Some other folks also think it is made up of equal parts of smoke and mirrors.

Watch the markets today. CNBC and others expect a "relief rally", perhaps a very short one. I expect a "as reality sets in" decline in stocks in the near future, plus weakness in the T-bill markets. There may also be some currency issues, but I expect any real problems there to take longer to surface. The rating companies will be under significant pressure to play along with the narrative; it's going to be very interesting to see if they go along.

Here's my view overall--this is a blip. The trajectory was set long ago, and we're just waiting to get to the point of impact. While we can all beat on the Big O for his administration's profligate spending (I believe that history will note it as the proximate cause of the collapse), he had willing accomplices dating back over a century in both parties. Many people are now beginning to see this, if only in bits and pieces. (It will be very interesting to see what happens if this becomes a widely accepted truth.)

There is no way to know when the impact will be, just as there is no way to know how bad things might get. We can (and should) keep leading our everyday lives, but we should also get ready while we still can. Do the beans, bullets and band-aids thing, but at the same time you need to begin mentally toughening yourself. You, me, all of us--we are going to be asked to do things and outlast situations beyond anything we might have considered a few years ago. How we perform will determine whether this is a Greater Depression or Mad Max.

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