Saturday, June 25, 2005

Denial is not a river in Egypt

(Via Jerry Pournelle)

For years, some have said that "We're borrowing against our children's incomes".

Might better include the grandkids and great grandkids as well.

The timing could not have been more apt. On the eve of a titanic partisan clash in the Senate, eggheads of the left and right got together yesterday to warn both parties that they are ignoring the country's most pressing problem: that the United States is turning into Argentina.

...

With startling unanimity, they agreed that without some combination of big tax increases and major cuts in Medicare, Social Security and most other spending, the country will fall victim to the huge debt and soaring interest rates that collapsed Argentina's economy and caused riots in its streets a few years ago.

"The only thing the United States is able to do a little after 2040 is pay interest on massive and growing federal debt," Walker said. "The model blows up in the mid-2040s. What does that mean? Argentina."


I don't think we have that long--I think that something will happen long before that to send our economy into it's death spiral. I also think that the sooner it happens, the better off we'll be--not as far to fall; no so many people falling. My personal prediction--somewhere between 2010 and 2020.

But hey, let's finish on a cheery thought:

"No republic in the history of the world lasted more than 300 years," Walker said. "Eventually, the crunch comes."

Yep, it sure do.

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